Cut today. Rehire at a premium. There is a third choice.

Cut, Wait or Train: The Third Choice in the Face of AI

It’s wild what’s happening right now. OpenAI, with ChatGPT, was behind Anthropic and Claude. And now, with the Astra version, they’re ahead. It’s a crazy race.

AI is shaking us up quite a bit. It’s forcing us to ask ourselves a lot of questions, to make decisions, to make changes. In short, it’s a shock for most leaders right now.

That said, in situations like these, you have to stay calm. Don’t panic, and don’t decide too fast. But you still have to decide.

And when it involves employees, it’s sensitive. Making the right choices becomes hugely important.

What Gartner predicts

On September 9, Gartner published a prediction that got people talking. By 2029, 30% of employees laid off due to replacement by AI will need to be rehired. And often at a significantly higher cost.

Why? Because cutting pays off fast, but it takes two things with it that don’t show up in a budget: your succession pipeline, and your organization’s memory, everything people know that isn’t written down anywhere. And with the labour force stagnating pretty much everywhere, rehiring costs more in recruiting, training and onboarding.

Gartner analyst Tori Paulman sums it up well: using AI first and foremost to cut costs risks reductions that are too deep and too soon. Paulman adds: “When business and IT executives look back on the early AI-era, they will realize their greatest mistake was believing that work automation was the point, when workforce amplification was the opportunity.”

The same press release points to the other path. By 2027, 75% of organizations that prioritize capturing AI productivity gains as cost savings will be eclipsed by competitors that reinvest those gains into innovation, modernization and upskilling. Gartner suggests using AI to reshape roles and redirect workers from less productive work to new opportunities. The release calls this a “talent remix.”

The other trap: doing nothing

Cutting too fast is the first trap.

I’m lucky enough to talk often with people who want to know where to start. We talk about digital optimization plans and AI scoping, of course. And those meetings open the door to the organization’s other challenges, AI-related or not.

That’s when it comes out. Leaders who can’t bring themselves to hire. They have positions, they have roles to fill, and they’re apprehensive about what’s coming. They’re not familiar with AI, and they wonder: do I hire someone who’ll go overboard with AI? Some kind of cowboy who’ll take too many risks and won’t follow governance? Or do I just do nothing?

And I notice that the status quo, doing nothing, seems to be the first choice. And I get it. And we all know it: not deciding is still deciding.

In fact, starting by learning AI yourself is a great step toward understanding it better. Because not knowing breeds fear. When you know more, you’re less afraid, and you make better decisions.

You chose your people

My take is that rather than undoing what we’ve built in our organization, we should adjust our approach. And to make that adjustment, AI itself can help. You have to do your homework, but it comes down to redefining positions and roles, and investing in training.

Because right now, we’re still in the very early days. Can you really find people who are really, really good with AI? Not necessarily.

You know your people. You chose them. You know their strengths and their weaknesses, they fit your culture and they serve you well. All they’re missing is knowledge and best practices. So invest in them. Help them learn AI and raise their productivity, for the good of the organization.

The ball is in your court.

Where to start this week

Take at least an hour this week to learn about AI. Follow the news. AI is here to stay, whether we like it or not. And my principle is this: intelligence is the ability to adapt to your environment. So let’s adapt.

Once you’re more comfortable, pick one or two champions, start with them, and compare notes on AI regularly. With two or three of you figuring things out together, you’ll learn fast. And that will help you do a better job of reshaping roles in your organization.

And you? Do you have a position on hold right now because AI is changing what you’re looking for?


Source: Gartner, “Gartner Identifies 4 Shifts Shaping the Future of Work”, press release, September 9, 2026.

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